Francis Forecast: Picks against the spread for NFL’s Week 11

The Forecast is back, baby! A 5-3 record last week snaps a three week losing streak, and the overall record stands at 36-36-3 after 10 weeks of picking games.

I know that isn’t a winning record, but I’m actually surprised it’s that good! That said, we’re ready to build on our win and start an upward trend. Our eight picks for Week 11 go like this:

Niners TT over 27.5: San Francisco got back on track in a huge way after their bye, destroying the Jags on the road. Like the Forecast, they snapped a three week losing streak. I’d like to think they are back to form, and against the 24th ranked defense of Tampa Bay, they should have their usual output of near 30 points, especially at home. I’m not sure Tampa will uphold its end of the scoring bargain, so let’s hit the team total on the Niners.

Browns -1.5 over Steelers: Browns with Deshaun, pretty good. Browns without, not so much. I know they’re without their starting QB this week (and the rest of the season), but this is more a play against a Steelers offense, which has been horrid the last three weeks. Kenny Pickett is 29th in yards per attempt and 30th in passing yards (119 per game) the last three weeks. All three of those games were at home. Now they go to Cleveland to face that defense? I’ll lay the short number with PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB.

Texans -4.5 over Cardinals: CJ Stroud has been on fire at home, hitting five touchdowns and nearly 500 yards in his last outing at Houston’s NRG Stadium. He also led the Texans to a last second win in Cincy last week. The likely offensive rookie of the year will have no trouble against the Cardinals shaky defense, sitting at 28th in the NFL in generating pressure. Stroud should have all day to pick them apart, like most teams have done.

Commanders TT over 23.5:  My fantasy quarterback, Sam Howell is leading the NFL in passing after 11 weeks (although my team still stinks). We all saw him come alive in the 4th quarter and light up the Seahawks, nearly pulling off the win. The Washington defense didn’t hold up it’s end, and they don’t have to against the Giants this week either. That’s why we’re on the team total. Yes, the last meeting was 14-7 New York one month ago, but now the G-Men are starting Tommy DeVito, he’s good for a turnover, which will lead to Commander points.

Jaguars -7 over Titans: The Jags were crushed by the Niners last week, snapping a five game winning streak. But I think they get right back on the horse in a division game this week. They’re back home against a Titans team that can’t move the ball. Will Levis was great in his debut, but he’ll continue to come back down to earth this week. Lay the touchdown with Jacksonville.

Dolphins/Raiders under 46.5: Bit of a flyer here, as the trend in the NFL is towards unders at nearly 60% this season. The Raiders have won two straight with Antonio Pierce as head coach, but not because of Aiden O’Connell and the offense. They’ll once again find the going tough against an improving Dolphins defense. The question is will the Raiders be able to slow down the Fish, who are coming off a bye? Maybe just enough? Vegas ranks 18th in yards allowed and 13th in points, so the answer might be... maybe?

LOCKS OF THE WEEK (7-12 overall):

Seahawks -1 over Rams: I don’t really have to explain my logic on this one. The Seahawks coughed up the season opener by underestimating the Rams and playing a terrible 2nd half. That won’t happen again. They’re motivated to get to 7-3 before the games that define their season arrive. Basically, we’re picking a winner here and the Seahawks will really have to play poorly to drop this one.

Chiefs/Eagles over 45.5: It’s a Super Bowl rematch and I’m on the over. It’s the 5th ranked offense against the 8th ranked offense. In the big game they combined for 73 total points. It won’t get close to that but 45.5 isn’t too much to ask. Is it? Should be a fun one to cap the weekend!

Ok, enjoy week 11 as the Forecast looks to start a streak!

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