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Francis Forecast: NFL picks against the spread for Week 8

Back-to-back losing weeks?! What is happening? (Actually, it was inevitable!) I blame the Bills and Niners for laying eggs... who knew?

That said, after a 3-5 week we’re still looking at a winning record 7 weeks into the season! 25-24-2 won’t win you any money but you’re not losing much either.

I’ll say it again, let’s get back on track with eight more picks.

Seahawks/Browns over 38.5: We’ll start by bucking conventional wisdom and say the Hawks and Browns will score more points than expected on Sunday. Yes, there will be field goals, probably 3 from each side. But someone is going to score a pair of touchdowns and the other will get in the endzone at some point too. I call it 24-22, which by my math, is over 38.5.

Colts +1 over Saints: The Brown’s last opponent, Indianapolis looked pretty good with Minshew Mania at the controls. They put up 38 points and got robbed by the refs down the stretch against Cleveland. They’re balanced and coached well. The Saints are no pushovers on the defensive end, but I’ll take the home team in a bounce-back spot to win it outright.

Eagles -7 over Commanders: Philly shut down the Dolphin’s vaunted attack last week, allowing just a single offensive touchdown to a team averaging over 30 per game. Does anyone think the Commanders who have lost four of their last five have the chops to keep pace? Yes, they did just that on Oct. 1st in a 34-31 loss in Philly, but the two teams have been going in different directions since then and that will show up Sunday. Lay the touchdown.

Rams TT over 19.5: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nakua can score a few points. Will they get three touchdowns vs. Dallas or two and two field goals? I think so. Dallas has not been as dominant as they were earlier this year. They’re missing Treyvon Diggs and Leighton Van Der Esch. Sure, Dallas will probably win but I like the Rams to score a little and keep it close.

Vikings -1.5 over Packers: I know, you may think I’m jumping on the Vikes bandwagon after they beat the Niners but that’s not the case, this is more of a fade of the Packers who have lost three straight than anything else. When asked what he thought of the Vikings defense which brings the most blitz pressures in the league, young Jordan Love said, “I’ve never faced a defense like it.” Not really what you want to hear from your starting quarterback. I’ll take the Vikings who are playing better after a rough start.

Falcons -2.5 over Titans:  I have said in this spot in past weeks that the Falcons are not very good on the road, but my record might suggest otherwise at this point. They can certainly win this week when facing not one but TWO backup quarterbacks. The Titans announced they will be playing Malik Willis AND Will Levis in place of Ryan Tannehill. So, they’re already one-dimensional. They also just traded away their star safety in what seems like a surrender move. Falcons take advantage. Even on the road.

LOCKS OF THE WEEK:

Ravens -9.5 over Cardinals: The Ravens and Lamar Jackson are rolling. The Cardinals are struggling. It’s that simple. LJack is 20-10-1 against the spread on the road in his career. Josh Dobbs just can’t generate enough offense in the passing game to keep pace. We saw that last week when they had the ball in Seahawks territory three times in the 2nd half and were shut out. The Ravens might have an even tougher D.

Texans TT over 23.5: It’s a battle of rookie quarterbacks in Carolina and I’m taking the guy who has shown he can put points on the board. Against the Panther’s 31st-ranked defense giving up 31 points per game. CJ Stroud will have some fun on Sunday. Not to say Bryce Young won’t, but I’ll take the 3-3 Texans who have shown some growth against an 0-6 Panthers team that is clearly undermanned. They don’t even have to win, all he has to do is put up three touchdowns and a FG.

Okay, enjoy week eight as I get back to my winning ways!