The Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday in the NFC championship game after the teams split their regular-season meetings in two tightly contested games.
The top-seeded Seahawks will face the fifth-seeded Rams at 3:30 p.m. on Fox, with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point favorite and an over/under of 47.5 points.
According to ESPN, if the first two matchups were any indication, the game could come down to the final minutes.
The teams finished nearly even across those contests.
Los Angeles scored 58 points and gained 830 total yards, while Seattle totaled 57 points and 829 yards.
The Rams won in Week 11 at SoFi Stadium, and the Seahawks answered with an overtime victory in Week 16 at Lumen Field.
“They’re a really good team,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said of the Rams. “They play hard. They play together. They’ve got really talented players. Got a great scheme. It’s just a great matchup. It’s right where we should be at this point of the year. It’s pretty cool.”
Seattle’s defense could play a central role.
The Rams average a league-high 8.9 air yards per attempt, but the Seahawks allow just 4.7 air yards per attempt, the lowest mark in the NFL.
Seattle has also been effective against play-action, a key part of the Rams’ offense.
On offense, the Seahawks could lean heavily on running back Kenneth Walker III.
With Zach Charbonnet out for the season because of a knee injury, Walker is expected to get most of the carries.
ESPN’s Ben Solak predicted Walker will set a season high in rushing yards, surpassing the 116 yards he gained last weekend against San Francisco.
Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the league’s most productive pass catchers this season, led the NFL with 1,378 receiving yards when aligned out wide and finished with a league-high 44 receptions of at least 15 yards.
He is the first player since at least 2016 to lead the league in receiving yards from the slot in one season and from out wide in another.
The Rams counter with Puka Nacua, who averaged a league-high 3.8 yards per route and gained 473 receiving yards on snaps after going in motion, the most in the NFL.
Smith-Njigba averaged 3.7 yards per route, trailing only Nacua.
Quarterback Sam Darnold has been particularly effective using play-action, an area where the Rams have struggled.
With play-action, Darnold is tied for the highest EPA per dropback among starters and leads the league in total EPA.
Both teams were among the least penalized in the NFL during the regular season.
Seattle was flagged only twice in the divisional round, while Los Angeles has had 11 penalties in two playoff games.
Sunday’s officiating crew, led by referee Clay Martin, averaged 14.4 penalties per game during the regular season.
ESPN analysts were split on the outcome.
Three picked Seattle to win by one to three points, while two favored the Rams.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Seahawks a 53.9% chance to advance, projecting a win by an average of 1.6 points.
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