The Francis Forecast for Week 10

Last week’s forecast wasn’t quite as bad as the Seahawks performance in Baltimore, but we did not have a winning week. It’s become a slow downward spiral for three straight weeks now and the overall record after another 3-5 showing is finally in the red. 31-33-3 after 9 weeks of picks. Had the Seahawks actually kept their game close, we’d be singing a different tune – but like Pete says, “nothing we can do about that now,” so, we’ll move on too. Here are the 8 picks for week 10!

Colts -1.5 over Patriots: Lets go back to Bavaria for a win. The Chiefs got us one last week, we’ll go with Indy for this game against the Pats terrible offense. Pats are 27th in the NFL in average yards gained and at just 15 ppg, they’re last in the AFC. The Colts aren’t really lighting up the scoreboard either but their defense had two touchdowns last week and they still have the nice running game with Jonathan Taylor. I’ll take Indy against a really bad Belichick team.

Browns +6.5 over Ravens: Do I think the Ravens are great, yes I do? Do I think the number is inflated here because of how they smacked around the Hawks? Yes, again. As we all have seen the last couple weeks these are the top two defensive teams in football and you’re going to give me almost a touchdown. It’s the AFC North, these are always slugfests. I will take those points every time and hope Deshaun Watson takes care of the football better the Geno did.

Bengals -6 over Texans: CJ Stroud was great against the Bucs D at home last week, got us a team total lock of the week pick. Five touchdowns and nearly 500 yards. I think he’ll find the going a little tougher in the Jungle. The Bengals have certainly regained their AFC championship game form. Four straight wins including one over Buffalo at home last week, prove that. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with a Texans team that is 1-3 on the road this year, including a loss to Carolina!

Jaguars TT over 20.5: The Niners have lost three straight and are coming off their bye just in time to travel to the red-hot Jaguars who have won 5 straight and own the AFC South. I don’t expect the Niners to lose their fourth straight, but I do expect them to have some trouble in what should be one of the best games of the day. The Jags have scored 20 or more in winning those five straight games. They should get to 21 on Sunday.

Falcons -1.5 over Cardinals: I have faded the Falcons on the road most of the season but not this week. Whether Kyler Murray plays for Arizona isn’t relevant, it’s that Cardinal defense that is not able to stop many teams. Falcons have a lot of weapons and Taylor Heinicke knows where to go with the football. They’re still kicking way too many field goals but they should score this week and drop the Cardinals to 1-9

Seahawks/Commanders over 44.5: I would expect playing at home against the 27th ranked pass defense to help the Seahawks offense get back on track this week. Back to their norm of scoring 24-27 points. Geno will find the going much easier than he did in Baltimore and he can’t turn it over forever, can he? Let’s hope not. On the other side, Sam Howell is quietly the leading passer in the NFL over the last five games with 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’ll get some too. Expect a close game, 27-23 sounds about right. Take the over.

LOCKS OF THE WEEK (5-12 overall, yikes):

Jets/Raiders under 36.5: Did you watch the Jets offense against the Chargers on MNF? It was an abomination. Poor Zach Wilson. They are averaging 10 points a game in their last 3 games. More importantly, the trend on Prime time games going under this year is over 20-7, including Thursday barn burner in Chicago. The Raiders have new life under Antonio Pierce but rookie Aiden O’Connell will not have much room to work vs. that New York defense. Another Prime time under is setting up nicely.

Dallas TT over 27.5: The Cowboys should have beaten the Eagles last week. They certainly scored enough but shot themselves in the foot twice inside the 1-yard line. That said, they have already smacked the Giants around this year, a 40-0 win in the season opener. The GMen are starting Tommy DeVito Sunday. It might as well be Danny DeVito. He’ll turn it over. The Cowboys will get four touchdowns easy. It’s a lock!

Ok, enjoy week ten as the Forecast gets back on the winning side!