The Francis Forecast: NFL picks against the spread for Week Six

At this point, it’s safe to say our forecasting capabilities are clearly better than the KIRO 7 Weather team. And they have big computers!

Last week we crushed a 5-2-1 record on an over which pushed the overall to 20-13-2. If we keep this up all season, we might have to do our Sports Xtra show from Snoqualmie Casino!

Okay, enough fantasy, time for eight more picks:

Commanders/Falcons under 42.5:

We rarely like unders but Philly/LAR treated us well last week so we’ll go with another here. Washington’s offense averages just 21.8 ppg, Atlanta just 16 ppg. Those numbers stink. Add to that the Falcon’s defense, ranked 10th in the NFL, allowing just one touchdown in back-to-back games and the recipe for a field goal contest is on the table. It’s a low number for a reason, kickers get your legs ready. Under 42.5.

Lions/Buccaneers over 42.5:

Speaking of that number. These two teams have some sneaky good offense. Detroit can throw it everywhere, The Bucs with new OC Dave Canales (former Seahawks QB coach) and Baker Mayfield running things are off to a 3-1 start. I expect each team to get three scores here and someone will win on a field goal! There you go, over 42.5.

Miami TT over 30.5:

Back to the exact same well as last week. And why not? The Dolphins have put up historic numbers through five weeks. More yards than the record-setting and greatest show on turf. Now they face another struggling defense. You saw what happened in an easy win over NYG. This week it’s Carolina without their top three defensive players, their top running back, and a rookie quarterback with the worst QBR in the league. The Fish DEFENSE is prime for a score. Over 30.5 is well below Miami’s season average of 36.2.

Seahawks +2.5 over Bengals:

The homer in me says take the points on the road in what should be a close game. The Seahawks offense can hang with anyone and even after their explosion against Arizona do we really trust the Bengals? I don’t, yet. I think the Hawks will iron out their third down/red zone issues at some point and their defense is coming around. Who will pressure better? who will turn it over? Who will take the points? The Forecast.

Seahawks TT over 21.5:

Staying in Cincy, the Seahawks are averaging 27.8 PPG and Vegas doesn’t think they will get close to that number against a Bengals team that gave up way more than that in all three of their losses? See above on the Hawks offense figuring out third downs and red zone. If they do, they will be scary. My bet is that with two weeks to scheme something up it starts improving this weekend.

Chargers +2.5 over Cowboys:

Last week I mentioned whether I couldn’t tell if the Niners were that good or the Cowboys were overrated. I think it’s both and I think we’re going to learn a lot about Dallas this Monday night in LA. Can Justin Herbert, with Austin Eckler back in the fold do some of the same things the Niners did vs Dallas? Yes, he can. At the very least they will keep it close. Give me the home team that can score, catching points in prime time!

LOCKS OF THE WEEK:

Niners TT over 23.5:

Okay, I understand why this number is low. The Browns are allowing just 15 PPG. Number 2 in the NFL (SF is number 1!). Then again, I don’t understand this number AT ALL! The Niners have scored over 30 points in ALL FIVE of their games this season and the Browns have not seen an offense this balanced yet this season. I will be stunned and impressed if San Francisco suddenly has trouble moving the ball. Cleveland will need to play some serious keep-away.

Bears/Vikings over 43.5:

Finally to the NFC North and two of the worst defensive teams in football. Bears rank 30th, Minnesota 23rd. On the other side, the Bears offense is finding their stride a little with Fields and Moore connecting against Washington. And the Vikes, though they haven’t put up great numbers yet this year still have all kinds of weapons even without Justin Jefferson. I think they can move it on the Bears, even on the road. Give me the over in this one!

Okay, get on these before my streak hits a brick wall, enjoy week six!

©2023 Cox Media Group