After a three-week hiatus due to Thursday night games and the holiday, the Francis Forecast is back in action!
We’re standing on an overall record of 36-36-3 after 11 weeks of picking games. I know that isn’t a winning record, but we’re losing juice, and in this arena that’s not the worst thing. All that said, like the Seahawks we’re ready for the “race to the finish”.
The eight picks for week 15 go like this:
Bengals -2.5 over Vikings: I trust Jake Browning a lot more than I trust Nick Mullens. In a battle of backups, you can give me the home team and the guy who is completing nearly 80% of his passes. The Vikings have lost 2 of three and barely escaped Vegas with a 3-0 win over the Raiders. Ugly. The Bengals are the pick.
Broncos +4.5 over Lions: The Broncos have won six of their last seven games and no, the opponents have not been great. But Russ is playing like Russ again and I know what that looks like: It’s winning football. They may not beat the Lions who are desperate to bounce back after losing to the Bears but they will keep it close. Give me the points and Mr. Unlimited.
Bears/Browns under 38.5: Speaking of the Bears, they looked like a juggernaut on offense at home against the Lions. That will not be the case on the road against Myles Garrett and the Browns. The Browns offense while somewhat efficient is no high-flying act with Joe Flacco at the helm. The Bears’ defense has allowed just 16.6 points per game in their last four. I say we have a 20-13 game brewing here.
Seahawks/Eagles under 47.5: A primetime under. I won’t bore you with the incredible stats on that this year but this one is going to be up to the Seahawks defense to keep down. Truth is, I expect both teams to try and run the ball and play some clock management to steal this one. This feels more like 23-20 to me, a close game where a field goal is the difference (tempting to take the Hawks +4 as well).
Miami TT over 23.5: The Dolphins shot themselves in the foot multiple times last week against Tennessee, first not scoring touchdowns early in the ballgame to make it a blowout, and then after putting 27 on the board, sputtering to allow the Titans to steal it. The Jets might even give Miami a short field or two, so if Tyreek Hill is healthy they should easily be able to hit 24. They scored 34 in New York on Black Friday, why not at home?
Chiefs/Patriots under 37: This is not your fathers Chiefs team… or even last year. In their last six games, they are averaging 19 points per game and have not gone downfield much this year. As for New England’s offense, they might as well run the triple option for all the success they’ve had. This one screams under. Seven of the last nine Chiefs games have gone under the total.
LOCKS OF THE WEEK (7-12 overall ):
Niners -12.5 over Arizona: I don’t have to explain my logic on this one. The Niners are the beast of the NFL. They crush bad teams and the Cardinals fit the bill, even in the desert where strange things happen. CMC, Deebo, Kittle, and the gang will not be stopped. Do you think Kyler Murray has enough weapons to put 17 on the board? I don’t. I would lay 14.
Bills -1.5 over Cowboys: The Cowboys are unbeatable at home. Unbeatable. They are not at home this weekend. They’re in frigid Buffalo where the Bills have somewhat righted the ship with a win over the Chiefs. It will be close, but Buffalo does enough to get another win and improve their playoff chances.
Time for the Cowboys to lose one, even if just by a field goal.
OK, enjoy week 15, and as always, good luck!
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