This story was originally published on MyNorthwest.com.
Washington just set an all-time record for diesel prices this week. Now the all-time record for unleaded gasoline in Seattle is in the crosshairs too.
And one of the country’s leading fuel analysts is warning this could get worse than the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, told “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio Friday morning that the global oil disruption caused by the war in Iran has entered territory that goes well beyond pump prices.
“If this continues for several more weeks and we don’t see leadership doing anything, it’s going to be more problematic than even the Arab oil embargo back in the ’70s,” De Haan said. “You’re starting to see physical shortages in areas like Asia. Chinese refineries are shutting down because there’s not enough oil to refine. When oil is no longer available, when people can no longer get to work or get to school overseas, it starts to become a very large problem.”
The U.S. is insulated for now. But De Haan made clear that insulation has limits.
Seattle gas prices 2026: how close are we to the all-time record?
Closer to home, De Haan said Seattle is now just 15 cents away from its all-time gasoline record. GasBuddy’s live data puts Seattle at $5.53 a gallon for unleaded Friday morning. The all-time Seattle gas price record is $5.68, set in 2022.
“By this point, with everything going on, it probably solidifies that we will see a record for Seattle,” De Haan said. “It’s just a matter of time.”
Washington’s average unleaded price is $5.30 per gallon. The broader Washington all-time unleaded record is $5.56. Diesel is already in record territory at $6.53 statewide, with Seattle at $6.67 and Tacoma at $6.71, according to AAA and GasBuddy.
Brent crude oil was trading at $110.83 a barrel Friday morning and spiking again. De Haan said the reason is straightforward: neither side in the Iran standoff is budging.
“Iran is not going to give in, and now quite visibly, they see that they’re winning this because the President is extending the timeline,” De Haan said. “I could also see him losing patience in the days ahead if Iran doesn’t make a deal, and that could re-escalate and reignite the situation, pushing oil up more dramatically next week.”
President Trump extended the Iran negotiating deadline again this week. De Haan said the market read that as a signal that a deal is not imminent.
“The market is parsing out that the two sides are completely on opposite ends of the spectrum,” De Haan said. “Nobody wants to give in, and you and I are going to be paying more in the process.”
How record diesel prices in WA will affect grocery bills and the economy
De Haan said Washington’s record diesel prices aren’t just a trucking problem. They’re an everything problem.
“Diesel is the fuel that powers much of the U.S. economy. Trains, tractors, trucks all use diesel,” he said. “You may not see it yet. You go to the grocery store, and something might be 10 or 20 cents more expensive, but that’s probably just the tip of the iceberg.”
De Haan said to watch CPI inflation data in the coming weeks.
“It doesn’t happen overnight at the grocery store, but it will be passed along the longer that prices remain elevated,” De Haan stated. It’s only going to get worse.”
The effects hit discretionary spending first. Fast food. Convenience stops. Entertainment.
“When you don’t have 20 bucks in your pocket because that’s in your tank, you’re probably less likely to go spend it somewhere else,” De Haan added.
For Washington farmers, the pain is already acute. Diesel powers the equipment. Fertilizer prices are tied to energy costs. Seeds, transport, everything. De Haan warned this week that farmers could be forced to sell their fields at a loss if crop prices don’t rise fast enough to offset surging input costs. Eastern Washington’s agricultural communities are watching this unfold in real time.
WA Climate Commitment Act making gas prices worse
Washington’s Climate Commitment Act adds an estimated 40-60 cents per gallon on top of the state’s already high fuel taxes, and De Haan said the regulatory environment is making Washington more exposed to exactly this kind of supply shock.
He pointed to California, where two major refineries have shut down because the regulatory environment made it impossible to operate profitably. With less refining capacity on the West Coast, California and Washington are increasingly dependent on refined products from Asia, which is now experiencing physical shortages.
“California is going to have to bid at a higher level for a declining amount of refined products because they don’t have enough refinery capacity of their own,” De Haan said. “That’s why in California it’s $7.61 a gallon for diesel in some areas of the Bay Area.”
Washington is on the same path.
“It’s going down a path that California has gone down,” De Haan said.
Washington drivers are currently paying the second-highest fuel prices in the country, behind only California. With crude oil spiking, the Iran standoff unresolved, and Washington’s Climate Commitment Act adding costs on top of the national surge, the all-time records across the board are not just possible. According to De Haan, they’re coming.
Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News”on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here.
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