The Francis Forecast - Week 2

NFL picks against the spread for week two:

Oh, what could have been! The Seahawks embarrassing flop in their opener Sunday killed two of my 6 wagers. Add in Buffalo’s 4 turnovers in their MNF thriller with the Jets and that’s half the card in the loss column. But that’s how it goes in week one sometimes. Expect the unexpected. Let us try and improve on this 2-4 start, shall we?

Falcons -1.5 over Packers:  Packers looked great at home against the Bears, didn’t they? They will look less great on the road against an Atlanta team that also looks much improved. Jordan Love will turn it over a couple of times and the Falcons offense will start to hit their stride. I think these are two fairly evenly matched teams. I’ll take the home team and, surprisingly, the Falcons will be 2-0.

Colts +1.5 over Texans: Again, two fairly even teams. Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson nearly ruined my Jags bet singlehandedly last week. How will he fare in his first road game? The fact that he’s facing one of the worst teams in the league will help in what should be a low-scoring game. I’ll take Indy to win this division matchup.

Seahawks +4.5 over Lions: Man, did the Seahawks ruin my Sunday. There is NO WAY this team is as bad as they played in the 2nd half. And frankly, I don’t think the Lions are as good as they looked in their opener against Kansas City. The Hawks have won 14 of their last 17 games at 10 a.m. Not only that but since 2012 they have the 2nd best winning percentage in the league coming off a loss (42-19. Only the Patriots are better). That speaks to coaching adjustments. This line is too high, wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks stole it Sunday but certainly Geno will be better and if the Seahawks don’t win, they’ll stay within a field goal.

Dolphins -3 over Patriots: I’m going AGAINST popular/expert opinion here (see stat above, coming off a loss) but the Dolphins seem to have too much firepower right now and I think they’ll show that even against a good defense, the strength of this New England team. The real question is, can Mac Jones keep up with Tua and his air raid? No. No, he cannot. The teams split close games last year, each home team winning. But, this is not last year, and the Dolphins are going to surprise a lot of people in the AFC.

LOCKS OF THE WEEK:  Seahawks team total over 21.5 points. YES, I’m going back to the well. C’MON! Do we really think after scoring 51 and 48 the last two seasons against the Lions they won’t get to 22 points in this one? This number is clearly an overreaction to a terrible week 1 performance. I expect Geno and company to put up 300 yards passing and 3 TDs. Then kick a field goal. There you go.

Bonus LOCK:  Niners team total over 27.5 points. Brock Purdy and company look like the class of the NFL after mauling the Steelers in their own backyard. Now they visit LA and though the Rams shut down the Seahawks they will not be able to sustain that success against a completely balanced Niner attack. They’ll score 4 TDs easily and may even get one on defense to help out.

Okay, there are the picks! Better luck this week and happy Football!