UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON — The future of local weather forecasting may rely on quantity, just as much as it relies on the quality of weather data.
"Instead of making one forecast, we make twenty, fifty, one hundred forecasts," University of Washington atmospheric science professor Cliff Mass told KIRO 7's Kelly Franson. "The whole idea of saying the temperature three days from now is going to have a high of 72 and a low of 56 is ridiculous because there's uncertainty in the forecast."
Mass envisions a not-too-distant future where forecasters can compile up to dozens of different forecast models for the same area, and make what he calls a forecast probability. For example, 50 forecast models for one area could include 25 that predict rain, and 25 that do not. That would mean a 50 percent chance of rain. Probabilistic forecasting can be accomplished for parameters like wind and temperature, Mass said.
"People are used to probabilities when they make medical decisions; whether they're going to have this cancer treatment or take that drug," Mass said. "I think people can deal with probabilities. They do that with other parts of their lives."
Research is underway at the University of Washington to evaluate how forecasters can compile multiple forecasts and present them in the clearest way possible. Research is also being conducted on atmospheric pressure sensors in newer-model smartphones.
"Smartphones are a game changer for weather forecasting," Mass said.
Tens of millions of smartphones across the country already have the technology built into them. Mass said they can provide temperature and other data to help meteorologists refine the forecast models.
"I think there's a good chance we could improve the forecast, because it would give us a level of detail that the current observation system just doesn't offer," Mass said.
Even though the data is there, nobody has developed a universal way to collect it. Mass said a major smartphone app, like Google Maps, would need to improve its software to include pressure data collection.
"At this point, Google is not willing to do that, but if they were, that would be a game changer," Mass said.
KIRO
