The U.S. House voted Wednesday to pressure President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran, even as American and Iranian forces continued to exchange strikes and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for a 94th straight day — fueling new concern about global oil reserves and the price drivers pay at the pump.
The measure is not expected to clear the Senate, and analysts say the vote itself is unlikely to move oil markets. But it lands at a moment of mounting uncertainty for the global energy supply, with one major oil executive now warning crude could surge to $160 a barrel in the weeks ahead.
“Even if they end the war, that doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “This is now something that’s going to have to be negotiated and agreed to.”
Prices fall nationally, but WA still sits at $5.66 a gallon
For now, prices at the pump are actually falling. The national average is down about 19 cents a gallon over the past week to $4.20, according to GasBuddy. Washington state has seen a smaller decline of roughly six cents, leaving the average at $5.66.
De Haan said the West Coast continues to lag the rest of the country because of refining issues and the loss of two California refineries in the past year.
“Very tight West Coast market,” he said. “It also unfortunately prevents the onset of a big drop in prices like what we’re seeing across most of the rest of the nation.”
Oil markets have whipsawed for months. Prices climbed earlier this week on fading hopes of a deal to reopen the strait, then fell again — even though nothing on the ground has changed.
“It’s got to be the world’s longest roller coaster ride, because this is something we’ve been on now for 94 days,” De Haan said. “Not much has materially changed. The strait is still closed.”
A senior vice president at Exxon told investors this week that crude could spike to $160 a barrel, citing what he called “unheard of low” global inventories. De Haan said the warning deserves attention.
“There’s a growing sense of alarm. U.S. inventories have seen the largest year-to-date decline of any year on record,” he said. “We’ve lost about 100 million barrels of oil, gasoline, and distillates — which include diesel and heating oil — since the start of the year. That’s by far the largest drop on record.”
He said foreign buyers are aggressively purchasing American fuel.
“Countries are buying our oil, they’re buying our gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and all sorts of things,” De Haan said. “There’s only a finite amount of time before inventories get to multi-decade lows across the board, and then prices spike.”
What $160-a-barrel oil would mean at the pump
If crude does hit $160 a barrel, De Haan said Washington drivers could see prices around $6 to $6.50 a gallon, with the national average climbing to between $5 and $5.50.
De Haan also raised concerns about market integrity, noting early statements from the administration that the Treasury Department could intervene to short the oil market.
“I can’t even trust what the oil market’s doing right now,” he said.
The cascading effects are beginning to reach other industries. Automakers, including Nissan and Toyota, have warned of shortages of specialized motor oils sourced from the Middle East.
President Trump has suggested the Strait could remain closed through Labor Day, signaling little urgency for a deal.
“It doesn’t seem like the president really cares or is in a big hurry to figure this out,” De Haan said.
After three months of analysis, De Haan acknowledged the frustration in his voice.
“The numbers don’t look any better,” he said. “It’s just been 94 days of frustration watching this really kind of slow-motion degradation of the economy.”
This story was originally posted on MyNorthwest.com
Manda Factor is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. Follow Manda on X and email her here.
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