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The Francis Forecast: Week one NFL picks against the spread

You’ll notice a trend here as the 2023 NFL season gets underway.

With a lot of unknowns in week one, I’m taking teams that I think will find very little defensive resistance. I’m riding with big-time offense and some proven quarterbacks!

Eagles -4 over Patriots

Am I worried about Bill Belichick at home with an entire offseason to prepare for the NFC Champs? No, No I am not. Since Tom Brady’s departure after the 2019 season, the Pats are 1-3, 1-3, and 2-5 to start the season. September is not kind to the greatest mind. Eagles on the other hand had the third-best offense in the NFL by yards last season and we’re tops in points in the NFC at 28 ppg. Give me Fly Eagles Fly in a blowout.

Broncos -4 over Raiders:

There is nowhere to go but up for Denver after that debacle of a season with the dynamic duo of Russ and Hack. Enter Sean Payton who has reined in the former Seahawks Diva and given him more structure and a better offensive line. The defense added Frank Clark. The Raiders? They added Jimmy G. Too bad he can’t play D because it’s Mad Maxx and 10 other dudes. Denver will roll at home.

Jaguars -4.5 over Colts:

The Trevor Train is getting a lot of preseason hype. That’s a little concerning but out of the gates they face an Indy team in a rebuild without their best player RB Jonathan Taylor. In addition, who thinks rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will light it up in his first NFL start? He might be great one day but not in week one. Not enough to keep pace with Lawrence anyway.

Seahawks -5 over LA Rams:

I know, I know, the Seahawks are slow starters, and the Rams ALWAYS give them fits. True. But this season, this first game at home with all his weapons Geno Smith will show everyone why he was the Comeback Player of the Year. The Rams are missing their best offensive threat in Cooper Kupp and even with the rebuilt Seahawks front which will be a work in progress, I don’t think they’ll allow Cam Akers to take over the game. The Seahawks will start 1-0!

Bills -2.5 over Jets

Yes, another road favorite but this is a bit of a flyer. I think it will take some time for Aaron and Gang Green to hit their stride. Meanwhile, the Bills are all in on getting back to the AFC championship game and though they struggled on offense last season against New York they place close games. Give me the proven winner over the Hard Knocks hype on Monday night.

LOCK OF THE WEEK - The Seahawks team totals over 26 points:

To add to my thoughts above the Rams have Aaron Donald on D. That’s it. No Leonard Floyd, No Jalen Ramsey, No Taylor Rapp, No Greg Gaines. Pro Football Focus rates their secondary as the worst unit in the NFL. Geno has a full year of snaps under his belt in this offense. 4000 yards, 30 touchdowns, and even MORE weapons this year. I think they score four touchdowns EASILY. my call is 31-16.

There you have it. we’ll be keeping tabs on my record all season long! Good luck to all and happy Football!