Snow south Thursday, areawide by the weekend

TONIGHT: It will be a cold night with morning lows below freezing areawide. As we have had a little snow up north around Anacortes and Bellingham, there could be some icy or slushy spots up there early on Thursday but for the rest of us it will be breezy and cold with morning wind chills in the teens and 20s except single digits around Bellingham. Definitely a night to take precaution with outdoor pets and also protecting pipes.

THURSDAY: Snow will move up from the south during the morning hours but the snow will be running into the very dry airmass we have in place across the region. Also, given this is not a very strong system to begin with, it will have difficult forward progress inland. Thus, we expect snow to affect areas from Pacific and Grays Harbor County through Lewis County in the mid-morning time frame, with some snow up into Pierce and maybe even southern Kitsap and southern King counties by early afternoon. Farther north into the I-90 corridor, this looks to be the breakpoint where it’s just too dry for snow other than just some flurries and it’s just bone dry up north. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for areas from about Tacoma south and west, for the potential for 3-6 inches in some areas. In reality, given the dry air, I’m still looking for 3-5 inches of snow to affect areas like Lewis, Grays Harbor and Pacific counties (less at the beaches), an inch to three for Pierce County including Tacoma with trace amounts or a slushy inch farther north. Unlike most of our snow events, elevation of your location will not play a factor. It is cold enough for snow down to sea level everywhere except right at the Pacific beaches.

Snow will likely retreat to the Washington/Oregon border Thursday night into Friday and most of the day Friday will be dry with some sun but very cold with bitterly cold wind chills.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY: This will be a far more significant storm system for our region, bringing lots more Pacific moisture which will be able to override the drying effects of the cold airmass we have in place starting Friday night, perhaps even as early as sunset with snow flying south of Tacoma. There will also be some freezing rain Friday night into early Saturday in Grays Harbor and Pacific counties, so icy conditions are possible there before a rain/snow mix. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued.

Snow will becoming increasingly heavy and spread northeast through the region from before dawn Saturday morning through the morning hours. It looks probable to snow into Saturday afternoon in many spots, though we may have some rain mix in across the far south Sound and south interior which may limit snow totals a bit. Snow should taper slowly Saturday night into Sunday morning, but probably not totally go away.

Snowfall totals will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the center of the storm system moving ashore, but just like tomorrow, there will be a north to south gradient of lighter to heavier snow. So the South Sound and south interior will once again be favored for the heaviest totals.

A very preliminary range of what we could see Friday night through Saturday would be more than six inches in the South Sound into southern Washington, possibly three to six inches in the Seattle area and a couple to three inches up north. These totals will be refined, but if snow totals are in this range, it would certainly qualify as a major snowstorm, rivaling what we saw in 2019 and 2017. Again, I cannot stress enough that being three days out from this larger event, perfectly accurate totals cannot be determined just yet. These are just ranges based on some on the present forecast data and historical precedent. More snow could well fall.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND: We could be dealing with some slightly warmer air coming into the region late Sunday and Monday but this is uncertain. We’re likely to continue to be dealing with snow or a rain/snow mix at times into Sunday and Monday but details are impossible to discern. Tuesday-on looks warmer and we should be thawing well by mid-week.

Cox Media Group