Rain Monday into Tuesday is the most widespread, soaking rain that many of us have seen since April. This is beneficial moisture — even if it happens at a time of year more tourists are arriving and kids are gearing up for the start of summer.
Good news because summer weather is headed our way in days.
Unlike with small weather systems or the question of “will it rain or not,” large temperature swings — or in this case a heat wave lasting multiple days — are often able to be forecast seven or more days out.
We started getting an inkling of a heat wave in the distance last week but now we’re within a week of the event, all our long-range forecast models point to hot high temperatures, likely peaking on Monday, June 15. That’s also the date of the first World Cup match in Seattle!
Temperatures will warm back to the 70s in many spots from Seattle south by Thursday or Friday, but over the weekend as high pressure aloft dominates with sinking air that discourages clouds, the lower-level wind flow will turn offshore, which means the cooling winds that usually blow in generally from the Pacific Ocean are replaced by generally east-to-west winds.
This offshore wind flow tends to promote hot high temperatures, especially nearer the Cascades where the wind currents out of central Washington descend in elevation. This downslope wind naturally warms and dries. The same effect is experienced at spots on the west side of the Olympics, like Forks.
While the exact high temperatures will be refined as we get closer, I’m very confident in highs in Seattle in the mid-to-upper 80s by Sunday afternoon and upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. It’ll again be hotter nearer the mountains, and also south of Seattle away from the water. Highs approaching 100° are possible in the Willamette Valley of Oregon with this kind of a weather setup!
Seattle’s record high for Sunday the 14th is 86° set in 1988 and for Monday the 15th is 88° set in 1963. Both of these records are on the “cooler” end of the daily record highs for the month of June and are likely to be broken.
What’s the hottest Seattle has seen in June? Remember 2021? Those three days from June 26-28 were the hottest of any days on record in Western Washington and much of the Northwest, with Sea-Tac Airport peaking at the all-time high of 108° on June 28.
This heat wave doesn’t look anything like that one!
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