UW model projects 45,000 fewer deaths in US by Nov. 1 if 95% of people wear masks in public

SEATTLE — The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation released an updated model Tuesday that forecasts about 208,255 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by Nov. 1.

The forecast has a range of about 186,087 to 244,540 deaths nationwide.

However, the projections drop to about 162,807 deaths by Nov. 1 (with a range of 157,216 to 171,192) if at least 95% of people wear masks in public.

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Late last month, the IHME projected about 33,000 fewer deaths by Oct. 1 nationwide if at least 95% of people wear masks in public.

“There is no doubt that even as states open up, the United States is still grappling with a large epidemic on a course to increase beginning in late August and intensifying in September,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in June.

Washington state is forecast to have about 2,509 COVID-19 deaths (range of 2,048 to 3,331) by Nov. 1.

However, that number drops to about 1,721 deaths (range of 1,609 to 1,875) if 95% of people wear masks.

Click here to see how other states project.

“People need to know that wearing masks can reduce transmission of the virus by as much as 50%, and those who refuse are putting their lives, their families, their friends and their communities at risk,” Murray said.

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