Researchers project COVID death toll in U.S. could reach nearly 300,000 by end of year

SEATTLE — The COVID-19 death toll could reach nearly 300,000 in the U.S. by the end of the year according to new projections from University of Washington researchers.

Although coronavirus cases are coming down across the nation, researchers compared dozens of projections that reveal a bleak outcome by the end of this year.

Dr. Ali Mokdad, who is with the university’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, and his team are behind the projections.

“We validate our models,” Mokdad said. “We do our quality checks and then we project into the future.”

The forecast is shocking, even for researchers because it is nearly double the current number of fatalities.

Mokdad told KIRO 7 that, “You have a big segment of the population that COVID-19 in their mind, is not an issue that will impact them.”

The university’s research shows that wearing face masks would dramatically drive down the projected death toll, but Mokdad said that is only if most people wear them.

“If 95% of ... Americans wear masks when we are outside our homes, we can reduce this by 70,000 deaths,” he said.

But according to studies, only about 50% to 60% of Americans are wearing masks—and that’s also in Washington state. With that information, experts worry that the chances of lowering the number of deaths are slim.

“A lot of people are still resistant because we’re sending mixed messages,” Mokdad explained.

If the University of Washington projections hold up, COVID-19 will be on track to be the third leading cause of death in the U.S. this year, surpassing drug overdoses and that has doctors across the country bracing for the coming months.

“The flu season and pneumonia that will come in fall and winter, we are going to overwhelm our medical system,” Mokdad said. “So, that’s what I’m concerned about coming into the fall, if we don’t control the virus right now.”

With the state’s mask mandate in place, researchers found that more people wear masks when they are legally required to do so, and they believe that enforcing the mask mandate will drive down cases.

Cox Media Group