SEOUL, South Korea — South Koreans voted Wednesday in mayoral and other local elections that are seen as a gauge of support for President Lee Jae Myung's year-old liberal government.
Opinion surveys suggested Lee's Democratic Party is certain to win more races than its main rival, the conservative People Power Party, which remains in disarray after President Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office and convicted of rebellion over his martial law debacle in late 2024.
Given its favorable political landscape, experts say the Democratic Party must score a landside victory and win some key races such as the mayoral vote in Seoul, the capital, so as to give Lee a clear boost.
“The conservatives' support base has been fractured and weakened in the wake of Yoon's impeachment, while the liberals' support base has grown stronger. Considering that, results of the elections will determine whether their dominance would prolong for a considerable time," said Jeong Han-Wool, director of the Korean People Research Institute.
South Koreans will elect 16 regional leaders
Up for grabs in Wednesday’s polls are 16 mayoral and provincial gubernatorial posts, 12 of them held by the PPP. Fourteen new members of the 300-member National Assembly will also be chosen in by-elections.
The polls opened at about 14,300 stations at 6 a.m. and are to close at 6 p.m. As of noon, the voter turnout rate stood at 19%, according to the election commission. South Korea has 44.6 million eligible voters.
Some earlier surveys indicated the Democratic Party would win up to 15 of the 16 posts. But newer surveys showed opposition or independent candidates were closing the gap with their Democratic Party competitors or even overtook them in five to seven races.
The Democratic Party entered the elections with a clear advantage because the public still has strong negative feelings about Yoon's martial law imposition, said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership. In addition, voters likely view the Lee administration as a new government that deserves a chance to implement its agenda, he said.
Thursday will mark one year in office for Lee, whose approval ratings hover over 60%. A key factor attributing to Lee's popularity is what he describes as "pragmatic diplomacy" that eased concerns that his rule would hurt ties with the U.S. and Japan. Whatever the outcome of Wednesday's election, Lee's foreign policy agenda will likely remain unchanged, experts say.
Much attention is focused on Seoul's mayoral race
Choi said that a resounding victory for the Democratic Party would be it winning at least 12 races in the elections. He said the party must also win the hotly contested Seoul mayoral race or the Lee government would suffer “a tremendous blow."
The Seoul race pits the Democratic Party's Chong Won-o, a former Seoul district head who rose politically after Lee publicly praised his governance last October, against current mayor and political heavyweight Oh Se-hoon with the PPP.
A Seoul mayor “isn't a post that someone whose campaign solely relies on the president's coattails can afford," Oh told reporters Tuesday.
In a separate news conference Tuesday, Chong said he expected Seoul voters to deliver “a stern verdict” on Oh over what he called the mayor's incompetent and irresponsible governance style.
Election results are crucial for the conservative opposition
The PPP is still struggling with internal feuding between reformists who joined the Democratic Party-led push to impeach Yoon and his loyalists who attempted to protect the embattled leader.
Among the candidates running for the parliamentary by-elections is Han Dong-hoon, leader of the reformist faction who was eventually expelled from the PPP. Surveys show Han, now an independent, holding a slim lead over the Democratic Party's Ha Jung-woo, a former Lee adviser on artificial intelligence, in a race in Busan, the country's second biggest city.
Jeong, the institute director, said that a Han victory could help anti-Yoon reformists regroup and emerge as a new force among the struggling conservatives in South Korea. But Choi, another institute head, said Han's win could worsen a divide in the conservatives because Yoon loyalists would feel a sense of crisis and close ranks further.