SEATTLE — The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that Washington state will have 1,429 coronavirus-related deaths by Aug. 4.
Its projections also show Washington state is still 20 days away from its peak count of daily deaths and is 23 days away from its peak hospital resource use.
For context, the Washington state Department of Health on Thursday reported 3,207 confirmed cases including 147 deaths.
The IHME is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. It was founded in 2007 by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
IHME officials said the projections are produced by models based on observed rates from COVID-19 and they incorporate information about social distancing and other protective measures.
According to the current projections, the peak count of daily deaths will be April 16 with 27.
The projections also show the state will reach its peak hospital resource use April 19. Resource use includes the total number of beds needed, excess bed demand, Intensive Care Unit beds needed and the number of invasive ventilators used.
“These forecasts were developed in order to provide hospitals, policy makers, and the public with crucial information about how expected need aligns with existing resources, so that cities and states can best prepare,” officials said on their website.
The IHME released data for all 50 states on Thursday and said they found that hospitals in the US could be overwhelmed come the second week of April and the US could have 81,000 deaths by July.
“The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a news release.
© 2020 © 2020 Cox Media Group