UW model projects 66,000 fewer deaths in US by Dec. 1 if 95% of people wear masks in public

SEATTLE — The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation released an updated model Thursday that forecasts nearly 300,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by Dec. 1.

As of Thursday, around 158,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. The IHME’s specific projection is 295,011 deaths by December.

However, officials said if 95% of people in the country were to wear masks when leaving their homes, their forecast for deaths drops by more than 66,000 to 228,271 by Dec. 1.  

IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said using masks and other protective measures are essential to preventing COVID-19, but people have been inconsistent in doing so.

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“We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States,” Murray said in a news release. “It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again.”

According to Murray, there appears to be fewer transmissions of the virus in Arizona, California Florida and Texas. However, he said deaths are rising and will continue to rise for the next week or two.

Murray said the drop in infections appears to be driven by the combination of local mandates for mask use, bar and restaurant closures and more responsible behavior.

“The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year.”

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According to Murray, several states are seeing increases in the transmission of COVID-19 based on cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The states include Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia.

“These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behavior,” Murray said.

IHME officials said their statistical analysis suggests that having a mask mandate with no penalties increases mask wearing by 8% while having a mandate with penalties increases mask wearing by 15%.

“These efforts, along with media coverage and public information efforts by state and local health agencies and others, have led to an increase in the US rate of mask wearing by about 5 percentage points since mid-July,” Murray said. 

Murray explained that mask-wearing increases have been larger in states with larger epidemics.

IHME officials said their model assumes that states will reimpose certain mandates, including nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million.

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The 8 per million threshold is based on data regarding when states and/or communities imposed mandates in March and April, and implies that many states will have to reimpose mandates, officials said.

Officials said the model suggests which states will need to reimpose mandates and when:

August: Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina

September: Georgia and Texas

October: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington. 

November: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wisconsin.

However, officials said if mask use increases to 95%, states could delay reimposing mandates by an average of 6 to 8 weeks.

Officials said their model also assumes that 50% of school districts in each state will opt for online instruction only for the 2020–2021 school year.

“As data emerge on actual school patterns, we will incorporate them into our future revisions of forecasts,” Murray said. “We recognize that, given mask wearing, the likely restrictions on after-school activities, and the potential for some parents to avoid engaging in school-related functions, our estimated impact of school openings may be overly pessimistic.”

Cox Media Group