Hurricane Matthew to slam Haiti, threaten U.S. east coast

Hurricane Matthew continues to be a large and very dangerous major hurricane churning slowly northward through the Caribbean Sea Monday.

Here are my thoughts Monday afternoon as the storm approaches Haiti with Category Four intensity and also following a more threatening shift in the eventual track toward the U.S. East Coast.

Catastrophe for Haiti likely

Matthew has maintained strength for a very impressive period of time and is also a very large storm.

As it moves north toward southwest Haiti tonight, it will have a large storm surge of up to ten feet. That is a vertical rise in the ocean level due to water being piled up ahead of the actual center of circulation. Waves on top of that will devastate communities on the southern coast of the Sud and Sud-Est departments of Haiti. %

% Wind will also cause extensive damage with hurricane force winds extending out 40 miles or more from the center of circulation. There is hope that the capital of Port-au-Prince will be spared the worst of the wind from Matthew

I'm perhaps most concerned about the rainfall that will be wrung out as the storm moves over the mountains of eastern and southern Haiti. Rainfall amounts over ten inches will be common and 20 inches or more will fall in some spots. Isolated totals upwards of 40 inches can't be ruled out. Massive flooding and catastrophic mudslides are a certainty.

Haiti is the least-developed country in the Caribbean and is ill-equipped to handle a storm like Matthew. Many communities are poorly-built and infrastructure is substandard. The country has yet to recover from a devastating earthquake in January 2010.

I expect that the loss of life in Haiti will be terrible and the international community and charities need to be ready to rush aid to Haiti as soon as the storm passes.

Elsewhere, we'll have damage and flooding in parts of the Dominican Republic (east of Haiti) and eastern Cuba and Jamaica, which will avoid the brunt of the storm -- though the eastern tip of Cuba could receive severe impacts as the storm center could go over that region.  Those countries are better equipped than Haiti to survive such a storm, though loss of life and property damage are likely, particularly from flooding.

Threat to the U.S. East Coast looms

By early Wednesday, the islands of The Bahamas will be receiving a lashing from Hurricane Matthew. We're hopeful that interaction with land over Hispaniola and Cuba will help to weaken Matthew somewhat, but we may still be tracking a major Category 3 hurricane as Matthew moves north through the Bahamas. %

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Communities and tourist resorts in The Bahamas are generally very well-prepared for a strong hurricane, though significant damage is still likely.

Now our attention will turn to the U.S. East coast.

Over Sunday night and Monday morning, there was a significant westward shift in the forecast models, especially some of the skillful global models and ensembles that typically do well with strong hurricanes.

The hope initially was that a trough of low pressure moving across the northeast U.S. would "pick up" the storm and help to curve it out to sea.

A recurve out to sea is still in the cards many days out, but it looks increasingly likely Matthew will come uncomfortably close to the U.S. East Coast with the first state likely to receive impacts -- Florida -- seeing problems starting Wednesday night and Thursday. %

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The National Hurricane Center shifted the forecast path westward on Monday afternoon with the best chance of impact from either landfall or a strong hurricane nearby from the east coast of Florida from south to north Thursday through Friday then potentially into Georgia and the Carolinas into the upcoming weekend.

In my opinion, along this track presently forecast by the National Hurricane Center on Monday, Matthew could be as weak as a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with wind over 100 miles per hour to possibly a Category 4 with wind as high as 150 miles per hour.  The ocean surface temperature off the east coast -- especially over the Gulf Stream just offshore -- is much warmer than normal.  Warm water over 80 degrees Fahrenheit is high-octane fuel for tropical systems!

Matthew could well head out to sea later in the weekend or it could proceed north by northeast up the eastern seaboard into next week.  Impacts to air travel to and from the East Coast could be significant and long-lasting.

There are uncertainties regarding the eventual effects of Matthew on the west coast, but we'll get a clearer picture once the storm clears Hispaniola and Cuba and heads into The Bahamas.

Here is an impressive video from the International Space Station as it flew over Matthew Monday!

Cox Media Group