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How to prepare for the big one: New Yorker gives advice after frightening article

SEATTLE — The writer of the New Yorker article about  the "earthquake that will devastate Seattle" published a follow-up piece with advice on how to prepare for the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami.

Kathryn Schulz writes that she stands by the FEMA statement that "everything west of I-5 will be toast" as the official who said it anticipates the region will be in grave shape in the aftermath.

>> SLIDESHOW: Geologic illustrations explain the Cascadia subduction

However, she addressed the the question, "Are we overdue for an aftermath?"

"As DOGAMI [Department of Geology and Mineral Industries ]’s Ian Madin told me, 'You’re not overdue for an earthquake until you’re three standard deviations beyond the mean' — which, in the case of the full-margin Cascadia earthquake, means eight hundred years from now. (In the case of the “smaller” Cascadia earthquake, the magnitude 8.0 to 8.6 that would affect only the southern part of the zone, we’re currently one standard deviation beyond the mean.)

"That doesn't mean that the quake won't happen tomorrow; it just means we are not 'overdue' in any meaningful sense. The odds I cite in the story are correct: there is a thirty-per-cent chance of the M8.0–8.6 Cascadia earthquake and a ten-per-cent chance of the M8.7–9.2 earthquake in the next fifty years."

After Schulz's distressing story on the really big one went viral in mid-July, earthquake kits were flying off the shelves in the Northwest.

As Seattle Emergency Management told KIRO 7 the city is prepared, local experts and Schulz alike say the best thing people can do is to have an emergency plan.

Here are nine ways residents can protect themselves, according to Schulz, with many of the items being simple, inexpensive or free:

  • If you own a home anywhere west of the Cascade Mountains, bolt it to its foundation.
  • Strap down your water heater.
  • Redecorate your home with an eye to gravity.
  • Make a plan with your family.

https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/626172795223937024

  • Get to know your neighbors, as they become de-facto first responders.
  • Keep an earthquake kit in a safe, accessible spot in your home.
  • If you live in the tsunami zone, know how to get out.
  • If you are visiting the tsunami zone for the day, walk or drive the evacuation route before settling in.
  • If you are an out-of-towner planning to spend the night in the tsunami zone: don't.

Schulz, who spends her summers in Oregon, says many have simply asked her, "What on earth am I doing out here?"

"Part of my answer is, I imagine, one I share with many people in the region: this place feels like home. I used to live here year-round, I still have family and friends in the area, and I dearly love it," she wrote.

KIRO 7 hosted its own Q&A on with a seismologist about the New Yorker article published earlier this month. Click here to read it.

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